Media coverage of who’s in and who’s out of the race for the Republican nomination for president in 2012 has intensified with the withdrawal of Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and now Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels. But despite a Gallup poll showing Sarah Palin as the principal person to gain from Huckabee’s decision not to run and not-so-subtle hints by the former Alaska governor that “. . . I do have the fire in my belly,” most Republican and Democratic pundits continue to believe she won’t run. I believe that she will run and here’s why.

The top reasons we hear that Palin won’t run are that she’s become a media star and likes the money. She’s burned her own political bridges and is unelectable. She isn't doing the necessary organization and pre-campaigning necessary to become a viable candidate in the Republican primaries. And she doesn’t want to subject her family to the intense attacks that will follow her decision to run.

Palin has made big bucks from her best-selling books, as a Fox News analyst, giving speeches at $100,000 each, and from her reality TV program, Sarah Palin’s Alaska. Pundits believe she wants to become, or she should want to become, the next Oprah Winfrey and a Republican “king maker.”

The problem with this argument is that Palin's principal passion isn't accruing wealth and fame or the kind influence that goes with them. They have been means to an end for Palin, not an end in themselves. Ever since she was elected to the Wasilla City Council in 1992, it's been politics. Anyone who truly believes Sarah Palin would prefer Oprah Winfrey's job over Barack Obama's is misguided.

Then there are Palin’s declining poll numbers, which pundits attribute as much to her actions as to the left's relentless attacks on her. They say this shows that she's unelectable.

Despite Palin’s political activities following the 2008 campaign, especially her support for successful Republican and Tea Party candidates in the 2010 election, negative attitudes toward Palin persist. They have been reinforced by members of her own party. Republican strategist Karl Rove and conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer, are among Palin’s leading conservative critics who don't believe she could beat President Obama. Palin’s “blood libel” comment in her video following the Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) shooting are widely perceived to have done her more harm than good.

And there’s the fact that Palin stepped down before her first term as governor of Alaska was up. When she runs, this will be the leading criticism of her. “She quit as governor, how can we be sure she won’t quit as president?” There are good reasons why stepping down when she did was a smarter decision than most credit her for; but only Palin can make that case as she will have to.

None of this, however, stands in the way of a successful Palin campaign for the Republican nomination or the White House if Palin performs well in debates and runs a “brilliant” campaign as most successful campaigns are determined to be after the fact. She has never been far behind Mitt Romney in polls ranking Republican candidates. Such polls have always been volatile this far out from an election.

She isn’t pre-campaigning or organizing like Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, or Michele Bachmann. It’s precisely for the reasons cited above, however, that I believe Palin is holding out for the most opportune time to enter the race—late summer. Had she entered early on with the majority of the pack, the media, pundits on the left and the right, and competing campaign operatives would have savaged her long before she would have an opportunity to prove herself in debates with all the top-tier candidates—undercutting her ability to win over big republican donors and do well in the primaries.

As we have witnessed, top Republican candidates are falling like leaves from the trees as presidential candidates in the party challenging a sitting president always do this time of year before an election. Mike Huckabee has decided not to run. Donald Trump, if he ever seriously planned to run, has flamed out. Newt Gingrich, in the worlds of Charles Krauthammer “is done” after he criticized Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) budget plan. And Mitch Daniels has decided not to run. Meantime, the big Republican donors are sitting on the sidelines.

There are still a dozen or so potential candidates out there. Three who could enter the race and attract significant support are New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Paul Ryan, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, but they are unlikely to run. Candidates on the verge of announcing their formal candidacy include Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, Jr., and Michele Bachmann. Gingrich will hang in as long as possible. All the others have poll numbers in single digits and are long shots at best for the nomination.

And then there’s the final reason pundits believe Palin won’t run—to shield her family from the onslaught of personal and media attacks.

Indeed, the self-described “mamma grizzly” is intensely protective of her family, and she has recently talked about the effect a run for the White House would have on it. It's difficult to imagine, however, how those attacks could get any worse than they already have been or that Palin would allow them to dissuade her from her goal if she truly believes a Palin presidency would be good for America.

What Sarah Palin most likely will do is enter the race before the first debate in which Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels, Bachmann, and Gingrich will all participate. That would be either the June 7, 2011, debate in New Hampshire or more likely the Aug 11, 2011, Fox News and Republican Party of Iowa debate. All Palin has to do is perform well and her poll numbers will rise dramatically as would her showing in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, both in February 2012. There are a great many evangelical Christians who supported Mike Huckabee who would likely support Palin when she runs along with her solid conservative base that has never abandoned her.

No one understands these dynamics better than Sarah Palin. Her passion for politics, her love of political combat, and her conservative belief in what’s necessary to put America back on the right course will weigh heavily on her decision. When Mike Huckabee sat alone in the room his inner voice told him not to do what all the other external voices were suggesting he do and he decided not to run. When Sarah Palin has that moment alone in a room I believe that her inner voice will tell her to do just the opposite of what Huckabee’s told him to do and she will run for president.