The sense of relief in the Obama administration and in Washington, D.C., was palpable the day after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak resigned and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of Egypt under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi (75) assumed power, promising free and fair democratic elections in September. Fears of the infamous Muslim Brotherhood’s ascendency waned and hopes for the spread of freedom and democracy were encouraged. The media, for the time being, will focus its cameras elsewhere; and Americans can return to worrying about jobs, deficits, and the economy. The outcome in Egypt, however, is far from settled, and the implications for governments from Algiers to Teheran ensure we will soon go down this road again. Washington now must assess multiple situations and scenerios and move intelligently and effectively to influence them.

Depending on who you’ve been listening to, the Obama administration either handled the Egypt situation skillfully and adroitly or was dazed and confused and, to use an old American colloquialism, a dollar short and a day late. At the very least, throughout the crisis senior administration officials, including the President, have sent conflicting messages as they gauged events.

On Friday evening, however, after Mubarak stepped down and Tantawi assumed power, most observers agreed it was the best possible immediate outcome. The Egyptian Armed Forces are well respected, their officers are largely the product of U.S. professional military education, and the U.S.-Egypt military relationship is an excellent one. The military's assumption of power at the very least gives the Obama administration some breathing room to get its act together. If, indeed, true democracy flourishes in Egypt the $30 billion in military's assistance to the Egyptian military over the past three decades may turn out to be one of the best foreign aid investments the United States has ever made.

Even if the Egyptian military keeps its word, however, a free and fair presidential election in the fall is not a foregone conclusion. Anything can happen between now and then; and even if it does take place there’s no guarantee it will lead to a true constitutional democracy. The Muslim Brotherhood, no doubt, still has a few tricks up its sleeve to ensure that it benefits from whatever happens.

The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper’s unfortunate statement that the MB is a secular organization, notwithstanding, the Muslim Brotherhood’s stated goals are antithetical to democracy and supportive of a global caliphate. Any coalition they are part of, in Egypt or anywhere else, will seek to ultimately move toward the imposition of Islamic Sharia law; and its reach and influence extend throughout the Middle East-North Africa region and beyond.

The U.S. can not afford to sit on the sidelines and allow Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and like-minded Islamist influences to drive events in Egypt and the region over the coming months. You can be sure they will do their utmost, overtly and covertly, to undercut freedom and democracy. President Obama and his administration must do more than make supportive public statements and encourage everyone to do the right thing. They must identify and support the potential pro-democracy, secular parties and candidates that will best serve peace and stability and U.S. interests.

The U.S. is not without tools to influence events. It has a long and successful record in previous administrations of official and unofficial, overt and covert support for parties and candidates committed to democracy and freedom in foreign democratic elections. It helped Central and Eastern European governments begin the transition to democracy even before the fall of the Soviet Union. It helped Iraq and Afghanistan conduct its first democratic elections. Organizations such as the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) are nonprofit organizations with records of advancing freedom and democracy worldwide. High-profile and lesser known Republican and Democratic strategists and their consulting companies have advised winning campaigns in countries around the world.

To be sure, the U.S. and American citizens must proceed with extreme caution lest their efforts harm the very groups and forces the U.S. seeks to support; but anti-American forces will seek to make the U.S. the bogeyman in any event. We can’t afford to allow that to dissuade us from doing what needs done.

The stakes are enormous. What happens in the months and years ahead will determine whether the governments that dominate the Middle East and Islamic world are dictatorships, theocracies, or constitutional democracies. Long before Egypt’s presidential election in September, regimes from Algiers to Tehran will likely find themselves confronting popular uprisings like those in Tunisia and Egypt. We can ill afford to find ourselves in the situation that CIA Director Leon Panetta admitted to a congressional hearing we were in with Egypt—relying on the news media to know what was happening.

President Obama is facing the most difficult foreign policy and national security challenge of his presidency. How he manages it will have profound implications for the United States, Israel, and other friendly and allied countries. Oratory has its place, but now it’s time for the U.S. national security and intelligence communities, organizations IRI and NDI, and America’s best political strategists to move into high gear and do things that will make a positive difference.

Indeed, how President Obama and his administration react likely will determine his chances for reelection in 2012. By then we will know whether Islamic countries in the Middle East are moving inexorably toward freedom and constitutional democracy or toward the jihadist dream of a grand caliphate. If they are moving toward Democracy, President Obama will benefit. If they are moving toward the black hole of the caliphate, he will deserve his share of the blame.