THE THREAT AND PROMISE OF SARAH PALIN

September 8, 2008 

Democrats may have more to fear from the articulate, attractive, conservative Sarah Palin than how she affects the outcome of the 2008 presidential election campaign.

Most Americans had never heard of Palin before McCain selected her. When he did, his critics immediately questioned his judgment, her qualifications, and the vetting process. They accused McCain of a useless attempt to go after disaffected Hillary Clinton voters. At the same time, fearing Palin might be a game-changer, the left-wing blogosphere, the left-leaning media, and some Democrats launched a fusillade of personal attacks on her. To his credit, Barack Obama said attacks on Palin's family were strictly out of bounds.

Palin's remarkable speech at the Republican National Convention, watched by nearly 40 million people, however, was a game-changer. It fired up Republicans at the convention and the party’s conservative base across the country, and it sparked a backlash over the personal attacks on her and her family.

Palin's instant stardom sent Democrats scrambling. The Obama campaign had to find a strategy for attacking her without appearing sexist. It may turn out that no vice presidential candidate in American history had such an immediate and profound impact on an election campaign.

There are many hurdles Palin must jump before Election Day. The debates lay ahead. Palin has yet to face the legitimate questions talk show hosts and the media will throw at her. And the scandal-mongering isn't over. A small army of reporters and Democratic Party operatives are still digging through trash dumps in Alaska hoping to find pictures of her shooting baby polar bears.

So what is it about this self-described "hockey mom" from Alaska that makes her such a threat? Simply stated, she’s a natural-born political superstar. She is wildly popular with Republicans, evoking comparisons to Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. Beyond Republicans she appeals to moderates, independents and Reagan Democrats.

When Palin walked out on the stage at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota, Americans got their first good look at her. Her speech may have been written by a speechwriter, as most politicians’ speeches are in the big league, but she delivered it with humor, warmth, and an ease that gave you the impression she had been giving speeches to 40 million people all her life. Even when her teleprompter malfunctioned, she didn’t lose a beat.

We know her back-story. We’ve heard about her moose hunting and her athletic outdoor life. We’ve heard how she took on the corrupt Republican establishment in Alaska and tamed the oil companies. We’ve seen her family and her pro-life commitment that led her to give birth to a Down-syndrome child rather than have an abortion.

It’s not just her conservative politics and her life story, however, that have rocketed her to iconic status among Republicans. It’s the fact that she walked on to the stage at the Republican National Convention at a pivotal moment in the history of the Republican Party and captured its imagination. Democrats may believe Obama will save the world, but Republicans increasingly believe Palin will save the Republican Party.

For the past several years the Republican brand has been in decline. An unpopular war, an unpopular president, ineptitude after hurricane Katrina and a sagging economy have eroded the Republican image. In 2006, with Democrats in control of both houses of Congress, they set their sights on the White House. With Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama they were poised to make history.

Republicans had become demoralized, facing the prospects of a Democratic Party in control of the presidency with a veto-proof majority in Congress. Democrats would appoint liberal supreme court justices, and set the political, economic, and social agenda for years to come. Even with McCain as their nominee, Republicans lacked the enthusiasm for him that Democrats had for Obama, who has maintained a consistent lead in the polls.

Then, Sarah Palin came riding to the rescue. Suddenly Republicans had their own history-making nominee--a true conservative who could unite the party’s base behind McCain. She gave the party a shot at winning over moderates and independents, including women, who still aren’t comfortable with Obama but who might have voted for him out of a sense of doing something historic.

Beyond this, many Republicans look at Sarah Palin and they can imagine her as the first women President of the United States. The best route for her to the highest office in the land is through the vice presidency.

We’ll see if America’s new iron lady can live up to Republicans’ expectations. However this election turns out, you can expect a large conservative constituency will form around her from one end of the country to the other. Americans are going to see a lot more of Sarah Palin.