THE CHINK IN OBAMA'S ARMOR

August 11, 2008 

John McCain may have finally discovered the chink in Obama’s armor. And with less than 90 days until Election Day, a pair of campaign videos may have been the precision guided- munitions McCain needed to penetrate it.

Following Obama’s return from his Middle East/Europe trip two weeks ago, he quickly jumped ahead of McCain nine points in the polls. At last, his campaign workers and supporters thought, he had laid to rest voters' concerns about his lack of foreign policy experience, and he was gaining the lead in the polls they’d been waiting for. After all, McCain’s campaign had been unfocused and unable to communicate a positive message to compete with Obama’s, as they’d been saying all along.

But suddenly a few isolated voices in the mainstream media, like Dana Milbank in the Washington Post, began questioning the “presumptuous” Democratic nominee’s air of overconfidence. Jay Leno and David Letterman began joking about Obama’s perceived arrogance. They uncovered a weak spot McCain was quick to exploit.

In rapid succession the McCain campaign produced two videos. The first, with brief glimpses of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears that mocked Obama’s celebrity and his “I am a citizen of the World” speech to 200,000 Germans in Berlin. The second used Charlton Heston’s Moses to suggest that Obama’s “we are the ones we’ve been waiting for” rhetoric had gone over the top. By August 1, Obama and McCain were tied in the Gallop daily tracking poll, and the USA Today poll had McCain four points ahead.

Obama, caught off guard, made fun of the videos and accused McCain of “juvenile” behavior and taking the “low road.” Even Republican strategists like Karl Rove questioned McCain’s approach and suggested it might tarnish McCain’s image.

Video for video Obama responded to McCain’s new offensive. After the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth attacks on John Kerry in 2004, Democrats and Republicans learned the need for instantaneous responses to the other side’s attacks. But the campaign that everyone had praised for mastering the Internet couldn’t seem to effectively parry McCain’s ads. For the first time, McCain’s YouTube hits surpassed Obama’s. Like Leno’s and Letterman’s jokes, they were something Obama people could talk about at work without fear of crossing that invisible line.

Then Obama, talking to a rally of his supporters, accused McCain of trying to scare voters because he didn’t look like all the other presidents on the one and five dollar bills. McCain shot back that Obama was “playing the race card from the bottom of the deck.” Obama said he wasn’t calling McCain a racist, just that McCain was taking the low road. Nevertheless, McCain got the better of the exchange, avoiding the damage done to Bill and Hillary Clinton when the Obama campaign accused them of playing the race card during the primaries.

Just as the campaign looked like it was about to get nastier, Paris Hilton seized the opportunity to grab publicity and aired her own video poking fun at McCain’s use of her in his. The ad was slick, and while it took aim at McCain’s ad, it only further reminded people of the point McCain was making in the first place. Obama dismissed it, but McCain just smiled and noted that Paris Hilton had put forth a better energy policy in her ad than Obama.

Politics as usual? Yes, but surprisingly effective. McCain, with a lot of help from Obama, finally got voters' attention and figured out how to do what Hillary Clinton couldn’t--criticize Obama in a way that didn’t come across (to people with a sense of humor) as petty or racist. Whatever momentum Obama had, for the moment at least, was stopped cold. As last week came to an end, Democrats were showing the same optimistic face to the public, but behind the scenes, they were worried. It’s still too early to tell how the John Edwards scandal, which broke last Friday, will factor into the equation.

With less than 90 days to go in the campaign, anything can happen. Obama, no doubt, will get a bounce out of the Democratic convention, but if it’s less than 10 to 12 points, he’s in serious trouble. For the first time in this race it looks like McCain really has a chance to win.

Ever since Obama became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party this election has been all about him. If ever there was a year that Democrats should win the White House while making big gains in the Senate and House of Representatives, this is it. President Bush’s approval ratings are in the basement. A majority of Americans blame him for getting us into an unpopular war in Iraq. They blame Republicans for an economy in crisis. And America is as politically and acrimoniously divided as it has ever been. The election has been Obama’s to lose.

By successfully finding Obama’s vulnerability and getting the voter’s attention, McCain has been able to use the opportunity to portray Obama as not “ready to lead” and to draw a sharp contrast on the issues. He’s been trying to contrast his and Obama’s positions all along, but not that many people were listening.

We’ll know fairly quickly whether or not McCain can continue to exploit the advantage and overcome Obama’s small edge in the polls. McCain needs to demonstrate to voters that he has a positive vision for America and a comprehensive plan for economic recovery to close the deal. Last week was his best week of the campaign and Obama’s worst. Fasten your seatbelts; it’s going to be a bumpy ride.