KEEP YOUR SEATBELTS FASTENED UNTIL THE ELECTION COMES TO A COMPLETE STOP

October 6, 2008 

With a month left to go in one of the most unpredictable presidential election campaigns in American history, we can only imagine what surprises await us before it’s over. If this election hasn’t given you a touch of vertigo, you either aren’t paying attention or you don’t care much about the outcome. It’s like a very long and turbulent plane flight. Now we’re on final approach and everyone onboard is anxious for it to end. But the most dangerous aspects of flying are takeoffs and landings. So I recommend we all keep our seatbelts fastened until the election comes to a complete stop.

Sarah Palin’s better-than-expected performance in the vice presidential debate in St. Louis, Missouri, watched by 70 million Americans, was just the most recent turn of events. Who the pundits think won the debate depends on who you listen to and which newspaper you read. Democrats, including most of the mainstream media, think Joe Biden won. Republicans think Palin won. We won’t really know until after the election if she swayed many independent voters.

It’s difficult to deny, however, as former Ronald Reagan speechwriter and Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan observed, that Palin was “the political equivalent of cardiac paddles" for the McCain campaign, and “an hour and a half of talking to America will take her to a new level of stardom.” Noonan and other conservatives like George Will have sharply criticized Palin for her poor performance in recent network television interviews. Noonan's comments reflect the energy Palin has re-injected into the McCain campaign.

Palin’s debate performance probably isn’t a “game changer,” and it’s not likely to win the election for McCain. Democrats may want to wait a while longer, however, before they start predicting that Obama will win in a landslide as some have. For the time being, the strongest headwind in the final days of this campaign continues to be the global financial crisis, and that works to Obama’s advantage. The party in power takes the hit for bad times. But as Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” And piling on clichés, “Thirty days is a lifetime in politics.”

The big question for Americans is what’s next? What could happen in the next 30 days that could determine the outcome of the election? Will there be an October surprise? In 1980 the potential October surprise was Iran’s release of the American hostages, but they waited until Ronald Reagan took the oath of office. In 2000 it was the revelation of George Bush’s drunken driving arrest. In 2004 it was Osama bin Laden’s video tape that John Kerry believes contributed to his defeat.

Certainly, the scariest thing that could happen is another 9/11-style terrorist attack. Al-Qaeda has a nasty habit of attempting to influence democratic elections, as they did when they set off bombs on trains in Spain before its presidential election. Their purpose there was to help elect a socialist candidate, who was against the war in Iraq, and the tactic worked. Spain pulled its troops out of Iraq.

Conventional wisdom has it that a terrorist attack on the United States would benefit John McCain and that al-Qaeda would prefer not to help him get elected. But if the purpose of another attack on the US is to inflict a crippling blow on the American economy, as it was on 9/11, what better time to strike than during the current financial crisis. With such a tempting target, does Osama bin Laden or any al-Qaeda crazy care who wins the US election?

Barring a terrorist attack, God willing, there are numerous lesser wild cards people can play. The Alaska legislature will release their report on Sarah Palin’s firing of her public safety commissioner in a few days. New damaging information about Barack Obama’s associations with Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, Father Pflager or someone else may come to light despite the mainstream media’s efforts to suppress it. And John McCain or Barack Obama could say or do something just before the election that they can’t recover from. The possibilities are numerous, if not all of them highly likely.

This is an important election. The stakes are high, and a large percentage of American voters still haven’t made up their minds. America is fighting a protracted global war. American lives are on the line at home and abroad because of terrorists who have no intention of leaving us in peace. The US economy is in the middle of what may be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Americans are mad as hell and, frankly, many of them are frightened. Jobs, homes, retirement incomes and financial security all are at risk. People want a president who will lead the country back to peace, prosperity and security.

If the financial crisis continues to dominate the headlines through Election Day and John McCain is unable to convince Americans that Barack Obama is too inexperienced and his policies will only make things worse, Obama will be our next president. Increasingly, political pundits, including conservatives like Charles Krauthammer, expect that is what’s likely to happen. McCain, Krauthammer argues, has thrown one too many Hail Mary passes. General Petraeus and Sarah Palin caught the first two, but no one caught the one he threw when he suspended his campaign and went to Washington to work on the bailout bill.

I suspect, however, that there are one or two surprises left in this campaign. They may or may not affect the outcome. But if you believe this election will make a smooth landing on Election Day, you may be in for a big surprise. Who knows, it may end up circling the runway for another 30 days like it did in 2000.