HARD TIMES, SEMINAL CHOICES

November 3, 2008

Tomorrow, Americans will elect either John McCain or Barack Obama to lead us through hard times. After the election, when the excitement and promises of the campaign give way to reality, seminal choices will continue to confront America. Important questions that affect America's future will still have to be answered.

Because of the global financial crisis, we face a deep, prolonged recession. Already, over 700,000 Americans have lost their jobs. As consumer spending (70 percent   of the US economy) drops, corporate and small business earnings will continue to plummet. As businesses close, reorganize and downsize, more Americans will lose their jobs. The recession will touch every major industry in America.

Like all financial crises in American history, this crisis will pass, but the solutions government has adopted could have long-lasting effects. When the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, used taxpayer dollars to assume majority ownership of AIG and buy stock in US banks, and bailed out financial institutions and defaulting homeowners, it rewarded irresponsible behavior. It acknowledged this was undesirable, but it assured us it was necessary.

When the financial crisis wanes, will government back away from these extraordinary protections? Will it resist the pressure to expand them into other areas of our economy and society? Or will Americans insist that their government move back toward the traditions of individual responsibility and self reliance for all but those who are not capable of providing for themselves? Will America retain the economic philosophy of our founding fathers or follow the social-democracy path many European countries have taken?

And what about our dependence on foreign oil, an issue that affects both our economic and national security? If there is any good news, it’s been the precipitous drop in the price of gas. As in the past, however, cheaper gas lessens the pressure on government, especially in a recession, to allow expanded offshore drilling and provide subsidies for the development of alternative energy sources.

Will Americans demand and will government pursue everything it can to put us on the road to energy independence before gas prices resume their upward climb? Or, will government revert to the indecision and inaction of the past so that we'll only be worse off than before?

On the verge of victory in Iraq and involved in a prolonged war in Afghanistan, we have prevented al-Qaeda terrorists from attacking America for seven years. They have been diminished, but not defeated. It's only a matter of time until they attack us again.

Struggling through a recession, will Americans become complacent about the terrorist threat? Will we continue to see our battle with terrorists as a war, or will we go back to treating it as a law enforcement issue, as we did before 9/11? Will we roll back the laws and regulations that gave government expanded powers to surveil and monitor terrorists?

With every day that passes, Iran is that much closer to its inevitable development and production of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. Both John McCain and Barack Obama have said a nuclear-armed Iran is "unacceptable." Sooner, rather than later, one of them must decide if they will stand by their statement.

If diplomacy continues to fail, will we use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons? Will Americans support it? And, if we fail to act, will we stand behind Israel if it does? Are we prepared for the consequences?

A resurgent Russia, believing that US and NATO relationships with its buffer states have encroached on its sphere of influence, has invaded Georgia and threatens Ukraine. It’s selling arms to Hugo Chávez; its bombers and navy ships are visiting Venezuela. It’s renewing its military relationship with Cuba. It’s selling arms to China. Currently friendly to the US, China pursues détente with Taiwan while it acquires military capabilities to counter the US Pacific Fleet.

What will we do if Russia invades the Ukraine? How will we react if Russia stations its forces in Cuba or Venezuela? Will we defend Taiwan if China attacks it?

What about North Korea, the Sudan, Pakistan, and any number of other potential hot spots around the world?

Facing our own domestic problems, will we draw back from our role as leader of the free world? Will we reduce America’s defense spending and divert scarce resources to domestic needs, as some now argue and others will as resources dwindle? Will we defer to our friends and allies for leadership in addressing the challenges that threaten world peace and stability? Or will we continue to do what we have done since World War II and lead the world in defending political and economic freedom, serveing as a beacon for peace-loving people everywhere?

Differences over these and other important issues will continue to divide America. We expect the man we elect tomorrow will lead us to the right answers. We have been blessed with great leaders throughout our history who have led us through difficult times. And we have much benefited from good fortune. Nevertheless, we are not immune from bad leaders and wrong decisions and the reversals of fortune that have brought down other great nations. If we wish to remain great, we can not expect more wisdom from those we elect to office than we expect from ourselves.