DEMOCRATS VS REPUBLICANS VS CONSERVATIVES

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DEMOCRATS VS REPUBLICANS VS CONSERVATIVES

Who is Running Against Who?

by Ed Ross

October 26, 2009

In a recent Washington Post poll, only 21 percent of Americans identified themselves as Republicans. Overwhelming Democrat majorities in Congress marginalize Republicans in government. Still, Democrats continue to run against the last Republican administration as they attempt to rush transformational legislation through Congress, worrying about Republican gains in the 2010 election.

At the same time, President Barack Obama has declared all-out war on Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, the US Chamber of Commerce, and the health-insurance industry.

Democrats in and out of government attack and ridicule the "tea-party" movement as the left-wing blogosphere and entertainment communities attack conservative Sarah Palin as if she already were running against Barack Obama in the 2012 election.

Conservatives, however, spend almost as much time criticizing Republicans as they do Democrats. In the race for the vacant seat in the 23rd District of New York, national Republican politicians are supporting the Conservative Party candidate over the Republican.

What's going on out there, and who is really running against whom?

Despite the Washington Post poll, Republicans are far from being declared an endangered species or Democrats wouldn't be so worried about them. Republicans are expected to win back many of the Congressional seats in 2010 they lost in 2008. Under the most optimistic scenario, Republicans could win control of the House of Representatives. The prospects for President Obama’s reelection in 2012 diminish daily with his declining poll numbers.

White House attacks on Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, the US Chamber of Commerce, and the health-insurance industry are about more than their opposition to Obama’s healthcare and energy reforms. They’re targets of a White House strategy to portray Republicans and those who criticize Democrats, and therefore might support Republicans, as extreme right-wing ideologues, powerful special interests, or their wholly owned subsidiaries.

There’s nothing new or outside the bounds of acceptable political warfare in attempting to cast your opponent in the worst political light. President Obama’s efforts to proclaim that Fox News is not a legitimate news organization and encourage other networks to ostracize it are a bit over the top, but Fox News can defend itself, and, like the president, they’re not losing any sleep over it. Fox News’ ratings and advertising revenues are soaring as its competitor’s are declining. Even Democrats are telling the White House this is a dumb strategy.

Democrats and their liberal supporters criticize, ridicule, and attack people who participate in "tea parties," although tea-party goers criticize both Republicans and Democrats, because Democrats have the most to lose and Republicans have the most to gain. They ridicule and attack Sarah Palin because they believe, regardless of what current opinion polls may suggest, that she's a serious potential threat to Barack Obama's reelection in 2012. Worse yet, if the tea-party movement and Palin ever join together it could ignite a political firestorm.

So how does it help Republicans, when Democrats are attacking Republicans and anyone who Democrats believe aides and abets them, for conservative Republicans to attack members of their own party and even support a third-party candidate in a Congressional race?

In the 23rd District of New York, conservative Republicans Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Michele Bachmann, Dick Armey, Steve Forbes, Rick Santorum, Gary Bauer and others are supporting Conservative Party candidate Dough Hoffman against Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens in this year’s election to replace Republican Rep. John McHugh, who Obama appointed as Secretary of the Army.

Scozzafava, practically a liberal as far as conservatives are concerned, is emblematic of the battle going on within the Republican Party. On one side are moderates who believe the party must become more moderate to appeal to moderates and independents. On the other side are conservatives who believe the Republican Party lost the last presidential election because its candidate, John McCain, was too moderate and had abandoned many core conservative principals.

Regardless which candidate wins, Democrats would have you believe that what’s going on in New York is symptomatic of what’s wrong with the Republican Party. The ‘evil’ conservative wing is driving moderates and independents away. Without moderates and independents Republicans will win fewer Congressional elections and they can’t win presidential elections.

The problem with this wishful thinking is that it ignores some important facts. Despite the results of the 2008 election and how few people currently may identify themselves as Republicans in polls, America remains a center-right country. Forty percent of Americans identify themselves as conservatives. More people identify themselves as conservatives than any other political group in all 50 states.

A majority of moderates and independents and significant segments of African Americans and Hispanics hold conservative-leaning/traditional-values views. While more than 90 percent of African Americans tend to vote for Democrats, George W. Bush won more than 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004. The right conservative Republican presidential candidate could win more than a third of the Hispanic vote and begin to break the iron-grip Democrats have on the African American vote.

What many conservatives believe Republicans have to do to win elections is not change their conservative message. What they have to do is change their approach and run attractive, compelling conservative candidates. As Michael Medved puts it, “History, common sense and recent polling send a clear message regarding the two common recommendations for rebuilding the GOP. Republicans don’t need less conservatism, and they won’t benefit from a more confrontational style. They actually need more conservatism, and a less confrontational style.”

Republican candidates for office must first and foremost offer a positive, hopeful conservative message. They have to convince moderate and independent voters that their policies will lead to a better, safer, more prosperous America for them and their children. Regardless of party identification, race, or ethnicity, that’s what American voters want more than anything. They’ll vote for the candidates they believe can best help lead America in that direction. Liberal Democrat's anti-free market, anti-capitalism preference for European social democracy will make it much easier for conservative Republicans to do that.

The contest in New York's 23rd District is an interesting one to watch. More important are the off-year gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. In Virginia, conservative Republican Bob McDonnell will likely win over Democrat Creigh Deeds. In New Jersey moderate conservative Republican Chris Christie leads by a razor's edge over incumbent Governor Jon Corzine with Independent candidate Chris Dagget bleeding votes away from Christie. Conservative victories in all three races would send tremors across the political landscape that could precede a conservative tsunami to come. It's still all about Democrats vs. Republicans; the question is what kind of Republicans?