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COLD WAR II September 1, 2008 Having invaded Georgia, Russia refuses to abide by the terms of the cease fire. It has announced that it’s virtually incorporating the Georgian break-away provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the Russia Federation. It threatens Poland with nuclear attack because it signed a missile defense agreement with the United States. It says it’s ready for another Cold War. Still, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) does little about it. Have we forgotten how the failure to stand up to Hitler before World War II only encouraged his aggression? A new Russia has risen from the collapse of the Soviet Union and has set out to restore its influence and rebuild its wounded national pride. Ironically, it was Mikhail Gorbachev in his August 19, 2008 op-ed in The New York Times that articulated the Russian point of view. “Indeed, Russia has long been told to simply accept the facts. Here’s the independence of Kosovo for you. Here’s the abrogation of the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, and the American decision to place missile defenses in neighboring countries. Here’s the unending expansion of NATO. All of these moves have been set against the backdrop of sweet talk about partnership. Why would anyone put up with such a charade?” Briefly, under Boris Yeltsin, it appeared that Russia would become a thriving democracy; but that was not to be. Instead it reverted to form. Gorbachev’s protestation, notwithstanding, Russia was an expansionist power long before the Soviet Union. Apparently it hasn’t kicked the habit. Now, unless the NATO allies take decisive and appropriate action, another Cold War is a real possibility. It’s easy to understand why the United States and its NATO countries were caught off guard by Russia’s incursion into Georgia, belligerent attitude, and irresponsible statements. They’ve been preoccupied with countering the threat from radical Islamic fundamentalism, competing in the interdependent global marketplace, and managing domestic political issues. The Cold War is long over, and they long ago welcomed Russia into the community of nations. It’s also no mystery why the NATO allies are hesitant to react too strongly to Russia’s actions. The Europeans in particular fear that sanctions, like depriving Russia of membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), could threaten their access to Russian oil and gas. Putin has previously demonstrated he is willing to use them as leverage when it suits his purpose. In the United States, President Bush has his own problems. He can’t effectively do anything that NATO won’t support. And with the country in the middle of a presidential election, he doesn’t want Democrats accusing Republicans of warmongering and failing to use diplomacy. US forces are overstretched fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The last thing the US needs is a confrontation with Russia. NATO’s behavior is easy to explain, but it’s difficult to defend. Failure to respond with some form of meaningful sanctions to Russia’s incursion into Georgia will only encourage Moscow to believe it can further push the limits of what NATO will tolerate. Moscow’s announcement that it’s recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states only makes the need to send Moscow a strong and unambiguous message even more urgent. Russia says it’s ready for a new Cold War, but it does not seek one. On this we can take them at their word. A new Cold War is not in their interest and they know it. That's why the right sanctions can work. Moscow simply wants to take advantage of perceived weakness in the West and Russia's new found wealth and leverage. It wants to reassert its influence in the former Soviet republics even if it accepts the fact that those who have already joined NATO are beyond its reach. Angered by the loss if its buffer states and the prestige it lost after the Cold War, it seeks to rewrite the rules of the game to its advantage. Nevertheless, by failing to make Moscow pay a price for bullying its neighbors and undermining democratically elected governments NATO risks a more serious confrontation with Russia that could lead to another Cold War or direct military confrontation. NATO is bound by treaty obligation to defend member states. Who knows when Russia may wish to take military action against one of the new Eastern European NATO members in a test of NATO’s will? Therein lies the real danger. Wars, hot and cold, all too frequently are the result of miscalculation. We are not yet on the brink of another Cold War. There is still time to resolve this problem diplomatically. But NATO’s negotiating position is weak unless it’s backed up with the threat of stiff political and economic sanctions. We know what happened 70 years ago in Europe when democratic states failed to stand up to an aggressor. To paraphrase Edmund Burke’s admonition, if we ignore the lessons of history we may have to repeat them.
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NYT: NATO's Disastrous Georgian Fudge Gorbachev NYT Op-ed: Russia Never Wanted a War The sun: Russia Tests Out New Lethal Nuke Herald Tribune: Putin Cast Doubt On WTO Accession Medvedev: Russia's Recognition Over Breakaway Regions Irreversible
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