CALLING NORTH KOREA'S HAND
Time For a Cold-War-Style Confrontation is Now
by Ed Ross
June 22, 2009
Since North Korea’s recent successful nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests, Kim Jong-Il has been behaving like a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum. He warns that any actions taken against him in response to past or future tests would spark a nuclear war. At the same time, North Korea prepares for the test of a 4,500-kilometer range Taepodong-2 missile he plans to launch toward Hawaii on or about July 4. Increasingly, it appears that we’re going to have to call Kim’s hand with a Cold-War-style confrontation or admit there’s nothing we can do about his nuclear weapons and missile programs. The longer we postpone that confrontation the greater the risk.
On June 11, the UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1874 which authorizes inspection of air or sea cargoes suspected of containing materials used for the development of nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. Unfortunately, the resolution does not authorize the use of force to inspect ships and aircraft that don’t voluntarily submit to inspection. Moreover, China, without which the resolution would not have passed, warned countries to avoid armed action.
Now, ironically, the destroyer USS John McCain (named after the Senator’s father and grandfather), is positioning itself to intercept a North Korean ship, the Kang Nam, believed to be carrying a cargo prohibited by the UN resolution once it departs coastal Chinese waters. Neither the White House nor the Department of Defense has announced what they intend to do if or when the John McCain intercepts the Kang Nam.
In preparation for North Korea’s missile test, Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered additional defenses around Hawaii consisting of ground-based radar and mobile missile systems that could shoot down an incoming North Korean missile. Hawaii, however, is beyond the 4,500-kilometer range of the Taepodong-2 and it’s questionable whether we would attempt to shoot the missile down.
No doubt, boarding the Kang Nam or shooting down the Taepodong-2 would draw a strong reaction from North Korea, although it’s not clear what that reaction would be. North Korea’s million-man army poses a serious military threat to South Korea. It has enough artillery tubes alone within range of Seoul to kill thousands of people in a very short period of time. But is Kim likely to start a war that he knows would certainly result in the collapse and destruction of his regime?
Kim is counting on fear of what he might do if the US responds to his provocations to deter it from taking any kind of military action. Kim’s been rewarded in the past for his feigned reversals following bad behavior. He has every reason to believe that Washington ultimately will appease him.
Meantime, North Korea continues to test and manufacture nuclear weapons and missiles, and, before too long, nuclear warheads to place atop missiles that can reach Hawaii or the continental United States. Taepodong-2 missiles already can strike Alaska. And Kim will have a few extras he can sell to other countries and al-Qaeda.
John F. Kennedy took military action (a blockade) during the Cuban Missile Crisis before Soviet nuclear-tipped, medium-range ballistic missiles in Cuba were operational because he understood the implications and consequences of not doing so. He acted before American cities and millions of Americans were at risk. Barack Obama should act before North Korean nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles are operational or North Korea sells a nuclear device or the means to assemble one to terrorists.
The current situation has much in common with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Then, Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev believed US President John Kennedy was weak, and once confronted with Soviet ballistic missiles in Cuba he would be forced to accept and be intimidated by them. Kennedy stood up to Khrushchev, and the Soviet Union backed down and removed its missiles from Cuba. Khrushchev knew that US nuclear capabilities at that time were far superior to the Soviet Union’s. Had the confrontation sparked a war with the United States Khrushchev knew Kennedy would use US nuclear weapons if necessary.
Comparing Kim to Khrushchev does a disservice to Khrushchev. Nevertheless, Kim threatens nuclear war because he believes President Barack Obama is weak and will not stand up to him like Kennedy stood up to Khrushchev. And, like Khrushchev, Kim wouldn't hesitate to take his shoe off and pound it on a table, but there is no evidence that he is suicidal.
As during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US must carefully manage a Cold-War-style confrontation with North Korea. Front and back-channel communications are essential for preventing the confrontation from getting out of hand and to provide Kim with a face-saving way out. The Chinese are well positioned to play the intermediary’s role. Of course we don’t want a war with North Korea, but unless Kim and his generals believe we are prepared to do what’s necessary to prevent him from acquiring nuclear weapons and ICBMs they’re not going to back down.
The window of opportunity for calling Kim’s hand is closing rapidly. Whether boarding the Kang Nam or interfering with the Taepodong-2 test are the best opportunities to do that only a US president informed with hard intelligence and sound analysis can best judge. The longer he postpones a confrontation with North Korea, however, the greater the risks.
