AFTER THE ELECTION

June 16, 2008 

Who Barack Obama and John McCain choose to advise them on national security issues is a pretty good indication who they will appoint to key positions in the departments of State and Defense and the National Security Council (NSC) if they're elected. How well the winning team overcomes the unique challenges it will confront after the election will determine how effective it will be. From what we know so far about the candidates, their advisors, their policies and from the past, those challenges are quite different.

If Obama wins the election, his administration will consist of new and old faces. By necessity he will appoint many experienced national security officials who served in Bill Clinton's administration, like his advisors Susan Rice and Richard Danzig. Rice served on Clinton's NSC and as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. Danzig was Secretary of the Navy. People like Kurt Campbell, a Hillary Clinton advisor and highly respected former deputy assistant secretary of defense under Bill Clinton, are others he needs to recruit.

Like Bill Clinton, Obama has touted the retired military officers advising him. Clinton rewarded former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral William Crowe, for his support by making him Ambassador to the United Kingdom. Seen beside Obama at recent events were former US Air Force Chief of Staff Merrill “Tony” McPeak and US Air Force Major General Scott Gration. Look for General Wesley Clark, a Hillary Clinton supporter and former candidate for president, among others, to join the team.

It's too soon to know, of course, what positions any of Obama's advisors will hold, but it's a good bet that national security decision-making in an Obama administration will tend to be highly structured and centralized. It increasingly became that way in the Clinton and Bush administrations. There’s no reason to believe it will be any less so in Obama's. His challenge will be compounded, however, by his inexperience and struggle to grab the reins of government at the same time he’s driving it through a sharp left turn.

Like Clinton's first term, because of Obama’s inexperience and wariness of the bureaucracy, his White House and NSC staffs will have the tendency to micromanage national security issues. They will want to protect Obama from the missteps that always plague a new president’s team. They will distrust senior career officials at State and Defense who played important roles in policy development and execution during the previous eight years. Unless Obama recognizes this tendency early on and takes steps to avoid it, it will limit the policy options presented and access to him. When you don't have the whole picture it's easy to make mistakes. Ask George Bush.

Also like Clinton, Obama’s unfamiliarity with the military will cause him problems with his generals and admirals. He's not comfortable around them and he doesn't understand their thinking and frame of reference. If he pulls US forces out of Iraq when General David Petraeus and others are advising him not to, he will create a rift between him and them that will be hard to bridge. Some top generals might even resign. Obama will have to learn to trust the advice they give him, even if he doesn't always take it. He will be less likely to make the wrong decision when the inevitable military crisis arises. This isn't easy if your mind's made up in advance. 

If Obama's elected, he will take office with high approval ratings and the support of the American people. He will have whatever time world events gives him to get his act together. The unique challenges facing Obama, however, will be considerable. He can overcome them if he works at it and keeps an open mind, but he won't have much time. Americans and history will judge him on results not rhetoric. 

If McCain wins the election, his administration will look and function differently. He too, by necessity, must appoint many senior national security officials who served his party's predecessors. But his experience, his management style and that of his senior advisors will allow him to avoid many of the problems Obama will have to deal with. He will have other challenges.

The White House, by it's very nature, insulates a president. McCain’s White House shouldn't insulate him as much as Obama's. The people closest to him, like Mark Salter, will be old Washington hands who have been with him for years. They will encourage McCain's openness and outgoing style that make him more likely to interact with people beyond the immediate circle of staff and policy officials that will surround him. He will have to work at it. Being president isn't the same as being a senator, but this won't be the problem for McCain that it would be for Obama. 

McCain’s knowledge of defense issues and his established relationships with general and flag officers will make for better, more efficient communication with them. They won't need a lexicon to talk to each other in a military crisis. They're in general agreement on Iraq, and they know they have to work together to solve the problem of Iran.

Prominent McCain advisors include Richard Armitage and John Lehman. Armitage was Deputy Secretary of State in Bush’s first term and Assistant Secretary of Defense under Ronald Reagan. Lehman was Reagan’s secretary of the Navy. More recently he was a member of the 9/11 Commission. They represent the tip of the iceberg of an extensive pool of experienced Republican officials who have honed their skills during three Republican administrations over the twenty years they held the White House since 1981.

Some are concerned, however, that the dreaded neoconservatives (neocons) around Bush and Cheney already are influencing McCain and they will end up in key positions in his administration. Obama accuses him of running for Bush's third term. If elected, McCain's challenge will be to change what needs changed and not change what doesn't. Throwing all the neocons and all their ideas out with the bath water will be a mistake. Only some have given the term a bad name.

If Armitage and Lehman are any indication, however, neoconphobia is premature. With people like them in key positions, a McCain administration will function more like Ronald Reagan’s, where they and many of today's neocons got their start. There will be fewer ideologues and more people like Armitage who are known and respected by America's friends and allies around the world. The Reagan administration may have given us Iran-Contra, but it also gave us an end to the Cold War and the political philosophy that elected three Republican presidents to the Democrat's one. 

If McCain is elected, his biggest challenge will be to rebuild the American people's confidence in his party and in US national security and foreign policy. That won't be easy as long as bitter disputes between Democrats and Republicans over Iraq, Iran, and other issues persist. McCain must demonstrate that his brand of Republicanism can pull together Democrats, Republicans, and Independents where America's national security is on the line.

The winning team will face many of the same challenges and pursue many of the same policies. Still, there are large, fundamental policy differences between the two nominees, and each man must overcome a unique set of challenges if he's elected. We won’t know how successful either man will be until he’s in office. Nothing less than the national security of the United States is at stake.